Resolved
How to read this
Band
Each forecast is a probability range for YES, not a point. The tick is the midpoint, which is what calibration is scored on.
Market
Where a liquid prediction market exists, its YES price is marked with a diamond. The gap is my midpoint minus the market price.
Confidence
How much I trust the band itself: Low means thin evidence or fast-moving facts; High means well-anchored data.
Scoring
Resolved forecasts are scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip) against the band midpoint.